https://www.geeknetic.es/Noticia/36103/El-auge-de-la-IA-pone-en-jaque-al-mercado-de-memorias-flash-posibles-escaseces-hasta-2036-segun-Phison.html

The explosion of artificial intelligence in data centers is transforming the digital storage landscape. As Tom’s Hardware reports, Pua Khein-Seng, CEO of Phison Electronics, the memory industry NAND flash could face prolonged shortages. And not just any one. This would extend over the next decade.

Pua’s warning is framed in what specialists describe as an imminent memory “supercycle”. For years, price declines deterred manufacturers from making big investments. In addition, companies such as Micron and SK Hynix redirected capital towards HBM memories, which were more profitable in the short term. The result has been lower NAND production capacity just as demand is skyrocketing again.

Firms such as SanDisk, Western Digital or Micron have already announced price freezes or increases in their flash memory catalogs, reflecting a market that is going through an unprecedented rebound.

It was the fault of the AI

Just a few days ago we reported on the agreement between OpenAI and Samsung to boost Startgate with 900,000 DRAM wafers per month. This reminds us that the main factor behind this scenario is the artificial intelligence boom. Initially, the investment in GPUs and HBM memories was aimed at training models, a process that has now stabilized. Therefore, the focus has moved towards inference. This process generates a huge volume of data that must be stored, driving the need for mass cloud storage solutions.

One of the key technologies in this context is nearline storagewhich falls between quick access and cold file. It is used, for example, to store old versions of models, past queries or infrequent user data, and is gaining weight in data center expansion plans.

The final goodbye to HDDs

Pua also talks about another important change. It refers to the progressive decline of the traditional hard drive. Although today it remains attractive in costs for large capacity storage, the prices of SSD for servers They will approach those of HDDs within five to eight years. Added to this is that hard drive delivery times already exceed a year in some suppliers, a factor that could accelerate the transition.

In 2020, the ratio of SSDs to HDDs in data centers was minimal. It is currently around 20%, and Pua’s forecast is that it will reach between 80% and 100% in the next decade. If this trend is confirmed, the demand for flash memory would maintain sustained growth until at least 2036.

It is evident that AI has represented a paradigm shift in many aspects. It also means a readjustment in storage costs and a structural change in how big technology companies design their infrastructures. Therefore, it seems that the next decade will be marked by rising prices in key components, such as RAM and SSDs.