Jefferies raises the alert on memory: it foresees increases of up to 50% in Q3 and more pressure in 2027

If you thought the worst was over, you were very wrong. The memory crisis continues to worsen and now comes with an especially harsh forecast from Jefferies Equity Research. According to the report, memory prices could rise between 40% and 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the current quarter, and then chain another additional increase of between 30% and 40% in the fourth quarter. By 2027, the scenario would remain tense, with a year-on-year increase expected of 40% to 45%.

Demand linked to AI, data centers and advanced computing continues to absorb capacity, while new supply takes much longer to arrive. We had already said that Micron expected a prolonged crisis beyond 2026, but Jefferies now puts even more aggressive numbers on the table.

One of the most relevant factors of the report is in the supply reallocation. Approximately 50% of total capacity would already be covered by long-term contracts between memory manufacturers and large technology customers, a proportion that could rise to 70%. This leaves less volume available for consumer products, such as laptops, desktops, consoles or smartphones, which are precisely the segments where the impact usually reaches the end user most quickly.

The pressure comes not only from shortages, but also from the distribution of supply

Jefferies attributes this scenario to several combined factors. These are global shortages, migration to more advanced manufacturing nodes and a supply chain increasingly dominated by large buyers capable of closing strategic contracts in advance. In this context, the report greatly lowers expectations about China’s role as a possible means of relief in the short term. The narrative of “cheap Chinese memory,” according to this reading, the market would not be changing in 2026 or 2027.

That fits with what we are already seeing on other fronts. Even older generations are being dragged down by the problem, to the point that the shortage already reaches DDR2 and DDR3 in some industrial and OEM segments. The tension is therefore not limited to HBM or the latest DRAM for servers.

Possible relief would come in 2028, when 15% to 20% of additional new capacity could begin to push average prices down. Even so, Jefferies warns that this recovery would be moderate, because demand for AI and computing will continue to grow. That is to say, we are not talking about a quick return to normality, but rather a slow adjustment after several years of pressure.

In practice, this report reinforces an idea that is already beginning to be evident throughout the sector: memory has become one of the great bottlenecks of the technology industry. And that explains movements such as the recent price increase applied by Apple, a clear sign that not even the companies with the most purchasing power are managing to absorb the blow without passing it on to the market.